The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Forecast Challenges, Current Understanding, and Future Directions.

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  • Additional Information
    • Subject Terms:
    • NAICS/Industry Codes:
      541990 All Other Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services
    • Abstract:
      A significant number of tropical cyclones move into the midlatitudes and transform into extratropical cyclones. This process is generally referred to as extratropical transition (ET). During ET a cyclone frequently produces intense rainfall and strong winds and has increased forward motion, so that such systems pose a serious threat to land and maritime activities. Changes in the structure of a system as it evolves from a tropical to an extratropical cyclone during ET necessitate changes in forecast strategies. In this paper a brief climatology of ET is given and the challenges associated with forecasting extratropical transition are described in terms of the forecast variables (track, intensity, surface winds, precipitation) and their impacts (flooding, bush fires, ocean response). The problems associated with the numerical prediction of ET are discussed. A comprehensive review of the current understanding of the processes involved in ET is presented. Classifications of extratropical transition are described and potential vorticity thinking is presented as an aid to understanding ET. Further sections discuss the interaction between a tropical cyclone and the midlatitude environment, the role of latent heat release, convection and the underlying surface in ET, the structural changes due to frontogenesis, the mechanisms responsible for precipitation, and the energy budget during ET. Finally, a summary of the future directions for research into ET is given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
    • Abstract:
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    • Author Affiliations:
      1Meteorological Institute, University of Munich, Germany
      2Department of Meteorology, Naval Postgraduate School, Monterey, California
      3Meteorological Service of Canada, Dorval, Quebec, Canada
      4Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, The University of Albany, State University of New York, Albany, New York
      5Canadian Hurricane Centre, Dartmouth, Nova Scotia, Canada
      6Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania
      7Center for Ocean—Atmosphere Prediction Studies, The Florida State University, Tallahassee, Florida
      8Bureau of Meteorology, Perth, Western Australia, Australia
      9European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom
      10Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, Prescott, Arizona
    • ISSN:
      0882-8156
    • Accession Number:
      10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018<1052:TETOTC>2.0.CO;2
    • Accession Number:
      11713396
  • Citations
    • ABNT:
      JONES, S. C. et al. The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Forecast Challenges, Current Understanding, and Future Directions. Weather & Forecasting, [s. l.], v. 18, n. 6, p. 1052–1092, 2003. DOI 10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018<1052:TETOTC>2.0.CO;2. Disponível em: http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=a9h&AN=11713396&custid=s6224580. Acesso em: 28 mar. 2020.
    • AMA:
      Jones SC, Harr PA, Abraham J, et al. The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Forecast Challenges, Current Understanding, and Future Directions. Weather & Forecasting. 2003;18(6):1052-1092. doi:10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018<1052:TETOTC>2.0.CO;2.
    • APA:
      Jones, S. C., Harr, P. A., Abraham, J., Bosart, L. F., Bowyer, P. J., Evans, J. L., Hanley, D. E., Hanstrum, B. N., Hart, R. E., Lalaurette, F., Sinclair, M. R., Smith, R. K., & Thorncroft, C. (2003). The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Forecast Challenges, Current Understanding, and Future Directions. Weather & Forecasting, 18(6), 1052–1092. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018<1052:TETOTC>2.0.CO;2
    • Chicago/Turabian: Author-Date:
      Jones, Sarah C., Patrick A. Harr, Jim Abraham, Lance F. Bosart, Peter J. Bowyer, Jenni L. Evans, Deborah E. Hanley, et al. 2003. “The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Forecast Challenges, Current Understanding, and Future Directions.” Weather & Forecasting 18 (6): 1052–92. doi:10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018<1052:TETOTC>2.0.CO;2.
    • Harvard:
      Jones, S. C. et al. (2003) ‘The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Forecast Challenges, Current Understanding, and Future Directions’, Weather & Forecasting, 18(6), pp. 1052–1092. doi: 10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018<1052:TETOTC>2.0.CO;2.
    • Harvard: Australian:
      Jones, SC, Harr, PA, Abraham, J, Bosart, LF, Bowyer, PJ, Evans, JL, Hanley, DE, Hanstrum, BN, Hart, RE, Lalaurette, F, Sinclair, MR, Smith, RK & Thorncroft, C 2003, ‘The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Forecast Challenges, Current Understanding, and Future Directions’, Weather & Forecasting, vol. 18, no. 6, pp. 1052–1092, viewed 28 March 2020, .
    • MLA:
      Jones, Sarah C., et al. “The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Forecast Challenges, Current Understanding, and Future Directions.” Weather & Forecasting, vol. 18, no. 6, Dec. 2003, pp. 1052–1092. EBSCOhost, doi:10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018<1052:TETOTC>2.0.CO;2.
    • Chicago/Turabian: Humanities:
      Jones, Sarah C., Patrick A. Harr, Jim Abraham, Lance F. Bosart, Peter J. Bowyer, Jenni L. Evans, Deborah E. Hanley, et al. “The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Forecast Challenges, Current Understanding, and Future Directions.” Weather & Forecasting 18, no. 6 (December 2003): 1052–92. doi:10.1175/1520-0434(2003)018<1052:TETOTC>2.0.CO;2.
    • Vancouver/ICMJE:
      Jones SC, Harr PA, Abraham J, Bosart LF, Bowyer PJ, Evans JL, et al. The Extratropical Transition of Tropical Cyclones: Forecast Challenges, Current Understanding, and Future Directions. Weather & Forecasting [Internet]. 2003 Dec [cited 2020 Mar 28];18(6):1052–92. Available from: http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&site=eds-live&db=a9h&AN=11713396&custid=s6224580